From expansion to contraction: the mechanics of leverage, collateral, and deleveraging that drive every major market cycle Hawkmont Research | Institutional Equity & Macro Research Conflict-free. No sell-side affiliations. No advertiser relationships. Executive Summary Every major boom and bust in financial history follows the same underlying structure, regardless of the asset involved. Credit expands, collateral values rise, rising collateral values justify more credit, lend

A Hawkmont Research Framework Report Executive Summary Markets move in cycles, not straight lines. This is one of the most consistently observed patterns across two centuries of financial history, and yet most investors continue to behave as though the current trend, whether rising or falling, is permanent. This behavioral pattern, extrapolating the recent past indefinitely into the future, is one of the most reliable sources of investor underperformance. Every market cycle,

A Hawkmont Research Framework Report Executive Summary Interest rates are the single most important variable in asset pricing. Every equity, every ounce of gold, every square foot of real estate is valued, directly or indirectly, against the return available on a risk free instrument. When that baseline moves, everything priced against it is forced to reprice. The popular narrative treats this relationship as a single lever. Rates go up, stocks go down. Rates go up, gold goes