Why Gold is Falling Into a Live War

Macro Strategy Desk Note | March 2026

Hawkmont Research | Confidential. For Professional Investors Only.

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picture © by The Economic Times

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1. Executive Summary

• Gold had already priced in elevated geopolitical risk during the pre-escalation drift higher. The actual kinetic event triggered a "sell the news" unwind from historically crowded speculative longs, not a fresh safe-haven bid.

• Dollar strength is the dominant transmission channel. Risk-off in a USD-centric system drives capital into the dollar first, not gold. A stronger DXY mechanically compresses XAUUSD regardless of the geopolitical backdrop.

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